Biden’s ‘dictator’ comment undercuts painstaking China diplomacy; Exclusive: New and Former Tianjin Municipal Party Secretaries
Biden’s ‘dictator’ comment undercuts painstaking China diplomacy; Exclusive: New and Former Tianjin Municipal Party Secretaries
Why does the West love Modi? Chinese premier in France for charm offensive targeting businesses, politicians; US, India send clear signal to China with new defense, tech deals
Welcome to this issue of The China Brief. Today is June 22, 2023. Here at The China Brief, we bring you the latest news on China's politics, economy, and society from global media sources, along with exclusive expert analysis. If you find our content helpful, please subscribe to our newsletter.
Exclusive: New and Former Tianjin Municipal Party Secretaries
Chen Min'er, the newly appointed Tianjin Municipal Party Secretary, was born in 1960 and was a former subordinate of Xi Jinping during his time in Zhejiang. Before the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Chen Min'er was transferred from Zhejiang to Guizhou, where he served as the Deputy Party Secretary. Shortly after the 18th National Congress, he assumed the position of Governor of Guizhou.
In the following five years, Chen Min'er's career entered the fast lane. He became the Party Secretary of Guizhou in 2015 and the Party Secretary of Chongqing in 2017, just before the 19th National Congress of the CPC, securing a position as a member of the Political Bureau. Within five years, Chen Min'er's rank rose from the vice-provincial level to the vice-ministerial level.
Chen Min'er is seven years younger than Xi Jinping. Due to the implicit rule that the General Secretary of the CPC should not exceed two terms, some believed that Chen Min'er would be Xi Jinping's successor, the crown prince. During his time in Guizhou, Chen Min'er attracted significant investments from wealthy individuals, which helped strengthen his relationship with them. Before the 20th National Congress, Chen Min'er was considered a strong candidate for the position of a member of the Political Bureau Standing Committee. However, unexpectedly, he did not get promoted and did not even move to Beijing. Instead, he was transferred to Tianjin, a directly-administered municipality with a relatively lighter economic and political position, to serve as the Municipal Party Secretary. It is unclear whether this move was influenced by his previous position in a province that was considered a "crown prince" province. Fortunately, Chen Min'er still has an advantage in terms of age. In the 21st National Congress of the CPC in 2027, theoretically, he can continue to serve for another term and possibly enter the Standing Committee.
The former Tianjin Municipal Party Secretary, Li Hongzhong, was reelected as a member of the Political Bureau at the 20th National Congress of the CPC and became the First Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.
Li Hongzhong, born in 1956, and like Xi Jinping's wife, Peng Liyuan, both have ancestral roots in Shandong. In the early stage of his career, Li Hongzhong served as the secretary of China's elder statesman Li Weihan's son, Li Tieying, following him from Liaoning Province to the Ministry of Electronics Industry.
In 1995, Li Hongzhong left Beijing and was transferred to Guangdong, the largest economic province in China. Over the course of ten years, he went from being the mayor of Huizhou to a member of the Standing Committee of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and then the Party Secretary of Shenzhen. At the end of 2007, Li Hongzhong was transferred to Hubei Province and served as the Governor, and by the end of 2010, he was promoted to the Party Secretary of Hubei Province.
During his tenure as the Party Secretary of Hubei Province, Li Hongzhong did one of the "most important" things, which was publicly proclaiming "Xi Jinping as the core" ahead of others in the country. This declaration was significant, as it was equivalent to local officials "promoting" Xi Jinping, consolidating his power and extending his term, marking the beginning of his rise.
After the reform and opening up, the Communist Party of China abandoned the personal dictatorship of the Mao Zedong era and moved towards collective leadership. Even the highest leader in the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping, had his power constrained by senior Party members like Chen Yun, and there was no mention of Deng being the "core" in official documents and propaganda, unlike the current situation with Xi Jinping.
The references to Deng as the "core" in Party history actually emerged retrospectively in 1989 when the relatively inexperienced Jiang Zemin was suddenly promoted to the position of General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee. In order to solidify Jiang Zemin's position, Deng Xiaoping retrospectively raised the issue of the leadership core, stating, "Every leadership collective must have a core. A leadership without a core is unreliable. The core of the first generation of leadership was Chairman Mao. In the second generation, I was actually the core. The third generation of leadership must also have a core, which is now agreed upon by everyone as Comrade Jiang Zemin. We must pay attention to establishing and maintaining this collective and its core."
Even though Jiang Zemin was bestowed the title of "core," he did not achieve centralized and unified power. His successor, Hu Jintao, during his tenure as General Secretary of the CPC from 2002 to 2012, did not even receive the title of "core." In official documents and propaganda, it was stated as the "Party Central Committee with Comrade Hu Jintao as the General Secretary," rather than "the Party Central Committee with Comrade Hu Jintao as the core." When Xi Jinping took over as General Secretary of the CPC in 2012 until the end of 2016, he also did not receive the title of "core." The description used in documents and propaganda was simply "the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the General Secretary."
It was on January 15, 2016, that Li Hongzhong, then Party Secretary of Hubei Province, publicly mentioned "Xi Jinping as the core" for the first time during a meeting of the Provincial Standing Committee. He said, "The Political Bureau and its Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee are the core of the Party's leadership, and General Secretary Xi Jinping is the core of the Party Central Committee's leadership. To consciously safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee, we must consciously safeguard General Secretary Xi Jinping as the core of the leadership." After Li Hongzhong's endorsement, some local officials also followed suit and started using the term "core" in reference to Xi Jinping.
In September 2016, Li Hongzhong was transferred to become the Party Secretary of Tianjin. One year ahead of the 19th National Congress of the CPC, he basically secured a seat in the Political Bureau. During his inauguration in Tianjin, Li Hongzhong stated, "We must be absolutely loyal to the Party, firmly maintain the Party Central Committee as the core of the whole Party, firmly maintain General Secretary Xi Jinping as the core of the Party Central Committee, and resolutely uphold the absolute authority of the core leadership."
In the first month after assuming the position of Tianjin Municipal Party Secretary, Li Hongzhong continued to frequently emphasize the "core" concept, becoming a unique phenomenon in the political arena at that time. On October 10, 2016, Li Hongzhong published an article titled "Being Politically Committed" in the Tianjin Daily, in which he quoted Xi Jinping's words: "When it comes to absolute loyalty to the Party, the key lies in the word 'absolute.' It means being the only, complete, unconditional, pure, and without any impurities loyalty." He then extended this to "Loyalty that is not absolute is absolutely disloyal," a simple and catchy phrase that touched Xi Jinping's heart.
At the end of December 2016, two months later, the Sixth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC was held. The communiqué issued after the meeting officially mentioned the phrase "the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core." The term "Xi core" was formally established within the Party. Li Hongzhong's endorsement and support finally bore fruit.
At the end of the democratic life meeting of the CPC Central Committee's Political Bureau held in December 2016, Xi Jinping openly accepted the "core" position: "Being the core of the Party Central Committee and the entire Party means responsibility to me. I will dedicate my entire energy and life to repay the Party and the people's trust, giving my all until the end, even at the cost of my life, to overcome all obstacles." Xi Jinping also emphasized the need for everyone to understand their own position and execute the decisions made by the collective, regardless of their position or power. He stressed the strict implementation of the system for reporting major issues to the Party Central Committee and the General Secretary in written form.
In October 2017, at the 19th National Congress of the CPC, the position of Xi Jinping as the core of the Party Central Committee and the entire Party was enshrined in the Party Constitution, ensuring his core status through Party regulations. Li Hongzhong, who contributed to Xi Jinping's rise, was also elected as a member of the Political Bureau at this conference, becoming a vice-ministerial-level leader. At subsequent meetings of the Political Bureau, the "Regulations of the CPC Central Committee on Strengthening and Upholding the Centralized and Unified Leadership of the Party Central Committee" were passed. In addition to highlighting Xi Jinping's position as the core, it stipulated that all members of the Central Political Bureau, both full members and standing members, must submit written reports on their work to the Party Central Committee and the General Secretary each year. This confirmed the superior-subordinate relationship between Xi Jinping and other members of the Political Bureau in terms of organizational procedures and leadership structure.
On March 11, 2018, the National People's Congress passed a constitutional amendment removing the term limits for the President of the state, breaking the restriction on Xi Jinping's term. Since the CPC Constitution did not impose term limits on the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping's term limit was effectively abolished, theoretically allowing for unlimited reelection.
We have provided a detailed account of this continuous process to clarify the consolidation of Xi Jinping's power. On the one hand, it demonstrates the meticulous process of Xi Jinping's centralization of power in terms of Party regulations, the constitution, and Party organizational systems. On the other hand, it illustrates the continuity of personnel arrangements discussed in this book from the 19th National Congress. Starting from Li Hongzhong's initial endorsement to the constitutional amendment that broke the term limit, this process lasted about two years and two months. Although in retrospect, the sequence of actions was meticulously planned and carried out smoothly, there were significant political risks for Li Hongzhong, who was the first to endorse the "core" concept. If any link in the sequence had encountered problems, Li Hongzhong's political career would have been greatly affected. Nevertheless, since the sequence of actions succeeded, Li Hongzhong's efforts were rewarded.
Although Li Hongzhong is from the same hometown as Xi Jinping's wife, their early careers did not intersect, making Li Hongzhong clearly not a member of Xi Jinping's core circle. By first endorsing Xi Jinping and tying his own political life to him, Li Hongzhong obtained the position of Tianjin Municipal Party Secretary, which has relatively less economic and political weight among the directly-administered municipalities. He also became a member of the Political Bureau.
With the special political label of being the first to endorse Xi Jinping and the new round of fawning propaganda leading up to the 19th National Congress, Li Hongzhong secured his reelection as a member of the Political Bureau and obtained the position of First Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which holds relatively less political weight among the positions held by members of the Political Bureau in Beijing.
Furthermore, Li Hongzhong's leader, the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, Zhao Leji, is also mentioned in this book. Li Hongzhong and Zhao Leji, both from Xi Jinping's ancestral province, formed a complementary relationship, balancing each other out. Liu Qi, the Secretary-General of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, comes from Zhejiang, forming a tripartite situation in the National People's Congress Standing Committee with the aforementioned two individuals.
Al Jazeera
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting the US this week for a series of meetings with President Joe Biden and other top officials. Despite concerns over human rights abuses and democratic backsliding in India, the US and its allies continue to embrace Modi due to India's strategic importance in countering China. The US sees India as a key partner in South Asia, particularly as tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to rise. India's importance for the US will only grow as both countries look to diversify global supply chains away from China. However, India is reluctant to become a traditional military ally of the West and wants to maintain its strategic autonomy. While the US and its allies may privately raise concerns about human rights, they are unlikely to do so publicly, given India's significance in countering China and its growing economic and military ties with the West.
Chinese premier in France for charm offensive targeting businesses, politicians
RFI
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has visited France as part of his tour of Europe, aimed at improving relations with the EU. Li met with French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire and attended a working dinner with members of the France-China Committee, a group of French industrialists dealing with China. The visit comes after French President Emmanuel Macron visited China in April. Li's visit coincides with a new EU proposal to protect the bloc's economies from risks posed by countries that do not share its values, such as China and Russia.
US, India send clear signal to China with new defense, tech deals
The Hill
President Biden is expected to announce a series of defense, technology, and business deals with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his state visit on Thursday. The deals, which include India's purchase of armed drones and a joint production agreement for fighter-jet engines, are seen as part of an effort to counter China's global ambitions and pull India away from Russia. The agreements cover sectors such as military assistance, critical technologies, space exploration, health, and the environment. While some lawmakers and human rights groups have called on Biden to address concerns about Modi's human rights record, the focus of the visit is expected to be on strengthening US-India ties amid tensions with China.
Biden and Modi Deals Span Drones, Jet Engines, Space and Chips
Bloomberg
President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will announce a series of defense and commercial deals designed to improve military and economic ties between their nations during Thursday’s state visit at the White House, senior US officials said. The two leaders will announce plans for General Electric Co. to jointly manufacture F414 engines with state-owned Indian firm Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. for the Tejas light-combat aircraft, as part of an effort to improve defense- and technology-sharing as China becomes more assertive in the Indo-Pacific.
Explosion tears through restaurant in China, killing at least 31
CBC
A gas explosion at a barbecue restaurant in Yinchuan, China, has killed 31 people and injured seven. The blast occurred on 13 June, on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The cause of the explosion is unknown, but investigators are looking into the incident. Industrial accidents are common in China, often due to poor regulation and safety training. The central government has pledged to improve safety measures following an explosion at a chemical warehouse in 2015, which killed 173 people.
Why Prospect of US-China ‘Decoupling’ Is Getting Serious
Bloomberg
There are growing signs that a "decoupling" of the US and China, the world's two economic superpowers, is starting to happen. Decoupling refers to a slow reduction in economic interdependence between the two countries, rather than an abrupt divorce. The tensions between the US and China have been escalating since the Trump administration accused China of unfair economic policies and launched a trade war. The Biden administration has maintained a hard line on Beijing and has implemented measures such as export controls, investment restrictions, and efforts to reshore production of critical minerals and high-tech equipment. While decoupling is not yet showing up in overall trade data, there are signs of a "general pattern" of decoupling. The share of imported Chinese goods as a percentage of total US imports has decreased, as has the value of US goods exported to China. However, decoupling comes with costs for companies and consumers, as it is difficult to replace China's vast production capacity and relatively low costs. The International Monetary Fund estimates that economic fragmentation could cost global output as much as 7%.
Military expert warns of ‘very serious risk’ of China war within five years
The Sydney Morning Herald
There is a 50% chance that Australia will be drawn into a war between the US and China over Taiwan within the next five years, warns Ross Babbage, a leading military expert. He suggests that a war over Taiwan would likely lead to cyber and kinetic attacks on Australian military bases and critical infrastructure assets, and fears that the nation is not prepared to respond to such threats. However, Babbage also states that war is not inevitable, but believes there is a serious risk by the end of the decade.
CBC
Canada's national security adviser, Jody Thomas, has said that she expects the security official who leaked sensitive information about attempted Chinese interference in Canadian politics to be caught and punished. Thomas said that the law has been broken, sources and techniques have been put at risk, and Canada's credibility with its Five Eyes allies has been damaged. She believes that there are better ways of raising concerns within a national security agency and that leaking information risks Canada's national security.
Macron would be inappropriate guest at BRICS summit, says Russia
Reuters
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has stated that French President Emmanuel Macron would be an inappropriate guest at the BRICS summit. Ryabkov criticised countries whose policies Russia considers hostile and stated that leaders who pursue such policies towards Russia are not suitable for the summit. Macron has expressed a desire to attend the summit, which is set to take place in Johannesburg in August. South Africa, an ICC member, is currently considering its legal options if Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the summit, as the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March over the Ukraine conflict.
New Zealand PM disagrees with Joe Biden over Xi Jinping remark
Guardian
New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has stated that China's form of government is a matter for the Chinese people and disagreed with US President Joe Biden's remark that Xi Jinping is a "dictator". Hipkins' comments come as he prepares to visit China on an official trade trip and meet with Xi. New Zealand is highly dependent on China for trade, and the relationship between the two countries has been strained in recent years due to various issues. Biden's comment about Xi being a dictator has been criticised by Beijing.
There's No Magic Pill to Treat Political Risk
Bloomberg
The concept of political risk needs to be re-evaluated in light of recent events, according to Bloomberg. The withdrawal of companies such as BP and Renault from Russia due to the Ukraine crisis has prompted concerns about the potential for a similar situation with China. Current methods of assessing political risk are deemed insufficient to deal with the scale of these risks, as they focus on compensation for investors rather than the potential for catastrophic events. As the world becomes increasingly divided into competing blocs, multinational companies are having to prepare for the possibility of being forced to withdraw from important markets. AstraZeneca is one example of a company that is considering ways to shield its business from worsening relations between China and western governments. The pharmaceutical giant has drafted plans to separate its China business and list it in Hong Kong. However, it remains uncertain how much protection this would offer, as the business would still be a subsidiary of a UK company.
ASML says decoupling chip supply chain is practically impossible
Nikkei Asia
ASML, the world's most valuable chip equipment maker, has said that decoupling the global semiconductor supply chain would be "extremely difficult and expensive" if not impossible. The company believes that any single country would struggle to build its own fully self-reliant chip industry and that the only way to be successful in semiconductors is through cooperation. ASML's success is attributed to its collaboration with critical global suppliers such as Zeiss and Cymer, and the support from its top chipmaking customers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel.
Modi meets Elon Musk and Ray Dalio in U.S. as India draws global investment
Japan Times
Foreign investors have poured $8.7bn into Indian stocks since March, making it the country's highest quarterly total since Q4 2020. Indian bonds denominated in rupees are on track to see the longest streak of monthly buying by overseas investors in almost four years. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently visiting the US and has been successful in encouraging US companies such as Tesla, General Electric and Bridgewater Associates to invest more in India.
Biden’s ‘dictator’ comment undercuts painstaking China diplomacy
Japan Times
US President Joe Biden has risked undoing the progress made by Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to Beijing by referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "dictator". The comments came during a speech in which Biden mentioned that Xi "got very upset" after a US balloon shot down by China in February because "he didn't know it was there". The comments could damage the relationship between the two countries in key areas including investment limits, export controls, and intelligence-gathering. They may also be seen as questioning the legitimacy of the Chinese leader.
China’s Cloud Computing Firms Raise Concern for U.S.
NY Times
US officials are reportedly turning their attention to Chinese cloud computing companies as part of the ongoing technological tensions between the two countries. Concerns have been raised that Beijing could use Chinese data centres in the US and abroad to gain access to sensitive data, in a similar way to fears about Chinese telecoms gear and TikTok. The US government has previously taken action against Chinese tech companies, such as Huawei and ZTE, as well as targeting Chinese-owned apps like TikTok and Grindr.
Biden calling Xi a dictator is his latest ad-lib to anger a foreign capital
Washington Post
President Joe Biden sparked a diplomatic row with China on Tuesday by referring to President Xi Jinping as a 'dictator' during a campaign fundraiser. The comment led to a strong rebuke from China and has raised questions about what comes next in US-China relations. However, this is not the first time Biden has made unguarded remarks about world leaders. He has previously said that the US would defend Taiwan militarily if China attacked, referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "war criminal", and said that Putin could not remain in power. Biden has also made conflicting comments about the war in Ukraine, first implying that Russia's incursion was not serious, and then warning of nuclear Armageddon. The president's off-the-cuff remarks have caused international uproar and have often been followed by attempts at damage control by his diplomats. Biden's comment about Xi being a dictator follows a pattern of presidential incumbents or aspirants taking a harder line against China at campaign events than they do in their official capacity from the White House.
US Coast Guard ship transited Taiwan Strait after Blinken's China visit -US Navy
Reuters
A U.S. Coast Guard ship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet said on Thursday, transiting the sensitive waterway a day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken completed a rare visit to Beijing.
G7 affirms unity and need for close coordination on China, State Department says
Reuters
The Group of Seven (G7) countries have affirmed their unity and stressed the need for close coordination in dealing with China, according to the US State Department. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with G7 representatives in London, where he briefed them on his recent meetings with Chinese leaders. The G7 noted the importance of coordination on China and reaffirmed their unity. Blinken's meeting came a day after US President Joe Biden referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "dictator," which China called absurd and provocative. Blinken's recent visit to China aimed to stabilize US-China relations and both sides agreed to continue diplomatic engagement. Blinken also discussed support for Ukraine amid Russia's invasion during the G7 meeting.
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