China, Vietnam prepare for possible Xi visit to Hanoi in next month; Taiwan elects its own leaders so is already independent: presidential frontrunner
China to double the size of its space station as it offers an alternative to NASA-led ISS
Welcome to this issue of The China Brief. Today is October 6, 2023. Here at The China Brief, we bring you the latest news on China's politics, economy, and society from global media sources, along with exclusive expert analysis. If you find our content helpful, please subscribe to our newsletter.
China, Vietnam prepare for possible Xi visit to Hanoi in next month -sources
Reuters
Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning a visit to Vietnam at the end of October or early November, according to four people familiar with the plans. The visit would come shortly after US President Joe Biden's trip to Vietnam in September and would highlight the growing strategic importance of the Southeast Asian nation. Officials are working on a joint statement to be issued during Xi's visit, with discussions taking place over the inclusion of the phrase "community of common destiny," a reference often used by Xi but viewed with caution by Vietnamese officials.
Taiwan elects its own leaders so is already independent: presidential frontrunner
Reuters
Vice President William Lai, who is leading in opinion polls ahead of Taiwan's presidential elections in January, has stated that Taiwan is already independent and sovereign and has no need for a separate declaration of independence. Lai's comments come as China continues to view Taiwan as part of its territory and has not renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Lai's stance on Taiwan's independence has drawn criticism from China, as well as Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang. Lai has emphasized that Taiwan's people must decide their own future and that the choice in the upcoming election is between democracy and dictatorship. Taiwan's current president, Tsai Ing-wen, is unable to stand for re-election due to term limits.
China to double the size of its space station as it offers an alternative to NASA-led ISS
CNN
China plans to expand its space station to six modules from three in the coming years, offering astronauts from other nations an alternative platform for near-Earth missions as the NASA-led International Space Station (ISS) nears the end of its lifespan. The operational lifetime of the Chinese space station will be more than 15 years, the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) said, which is more than the 10 years previously announced. Tiangong has become an emblem of China’s growing clout and confidence in its space endeavors, and a challenger to the United States in the domain after being isolated from the ISS.
EU leaders to debate economic security amid global tensions
Reuters
European Union leaders will discuss ways to enhance the bloc's competitiveness and reduce reliance on third countries, particularly China, at a summit in Granada. The meeting will help shape discussions on European Commission proposals to tighten control on exports and outflows of technologies with potential military applications. The EU executive plans to assess the risks to the bloc's economic security linked to advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and biotechnology. The debate will also cover the harmonisation of national security policies and the openness of European markets to foreign companies.
Thousands of tourists visit Macau, Hong Kong during Golden Week holidays
Reuters
Chinese-controlled regions of Macau and Hong Kong saw a surge in visitors during China's Golden Week holiday, although the numbers were still around 85% of pre-pandemic levels. Macau saw about 900,000 visitors, with daily numbers increasing more than five times from last year. Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 80% of visitors to Macau. In Hong Kong, about 1 million visitors arrived during the holiday, with a 30% increase in foot traffic reported by retailers. However, sales were similar to a normal weekend, suggesting reluctance among some tourists to spend.
Manila restocks sea post after flare-up with China
BBC
Chinese vessels have blocked Filipino supply boats to an outpost in the disputed South China Sea, according to the BBC. The incident took place as two Philippine coast guard ships and two commercial boats attempted to reach the Second Thomas Shoal. They were met by a Chinese Coast Guard ship that was five times larger than the commercial boats. The encounter lasted several hours. Tensions between the Philippines and China remain high as both countries claim the South China Sea. Manila resupplies its outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal every month to reinforce its economic rights to the waters.
Emerging economies face China and rate pressures as IMF, World Bank meet
Reuters
Emerging markets face multiple challenges, including a recent sell-off in US Treasuries, China's slowing economy and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. At the upcoming World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Marrakech, policymakers and asset managers will focus on the restructuring efforts of defaulted countries, China's slowdown, Ukraine's financing, debt reworks, potential sovereign defaults (including Argentina, Pakistan, and Kenya), and the need to boost lending to poorer countries for development and climate change.
Yellen to Focus on World Bank and China at Global Meetings
Bloomberg
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to discuss World Bank reform, meet with senior Chinese officials, and potentially discuss ways to limit Russia's revenue from oil sales during an upcoming nine-day international trip. Yellen will attend the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Marrakech, Morocco, where she will deliver a speech on World Bank reforms. Yellen may also meet with Chinese counterparts to further improve economic relations between the two countries. Additionally, she will discuss increasing IMF quotas and address issues surrounding debt restructuring deals for low-income countries.
China economists cut growth forecast to 5% amid property woes
Nikkei Asia
Economists have revised down their forecasts for China's full-year economic growth to 5% year-on-year, citing turmoil in the housing market and the lack of effective stimulus measures. The average GDP forecast for 2023 by 29 analysts has fallen by 0.5 percentage points, with 26 economists revising down their outlook from the previous quarter. The range of forecasts for China's GDP growth was between 4.5% and 5.6%, with 12 economists' predictions coming in below Beijing's official target of around 5%. The property downturn has deepened, external demand has weakened further, and policy support has been less than expected. There's a slump in real estate-related investment and consumption. Expectations for rapid growth in 2023 have been dampened by weak consumer sentiment, while government policies to stimulate growth that economists expected did not materialize. The average forecast for GDP growth in Q3 was 4.4% year-on-year. Hopes that the government will implement policies to reverse the housing downturn have faded, while news that major developers were struggling further disappointed market watchers.
Tokyo courts world’s investment royalty with ‘Japan is back’ message
Financial Times
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been attempting to persuade global investors to turn bullish on Japan, stating that the country's economy and wages were stronger after years of stagnation, stock prices were near a 33-year high, and a shake-up of its asset management industry could unlock $14tn of household savings. However, investors caution that Japan's attractiveness may be short-lived, with the country benefiting from external factors such as global inflation, interest rate differentials between Japan and the US, and geopolitical uncertainty over China.
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