Exclusive Insight: Li Qiang's first priority as Premier
U.S. Believes Beijing Is Considering Artillery and Drone Deliveries to Moscow; Biden Does Not Anticipate China Giving Russia Major Weapons Aid; China pushes for resurrection of EU investment deal
In today's issue of "The China Brief," we cover a range of topics, including the US's belief that China is considering providing artillery and drones to Russia, President Biden's warning to China about supporting Russia's invasion, China's push to revive the EU investment deal, and China's plan to train 5,000 security personnel from developing countries over the next five years to boost its global security influence.
And here’s today’s exclusive insight:
Li Qiang's first priority as Premier: to return the economy to a growth trajectory as soon as possible
Li Qiang is an amicable person. He advocates for "dian xiao’er economy," which is essentially a simplified and deregulated approach to supporting mass innovation and entrepreneurship. (Editor’s note: "Dian xiao’er" in English is "waiter" or "server" in a restaurant or tea house. It is a colloquial term used in China to refer to a waiter who serves customers in a small restaurant or tea house.)
However, due to his relatively limited educational background, Li expresses himself using simplistic language and metaphors, which is still an improvement compared to those who just use fancy words but do not follow through.
Over the past decade, the CCP has not given due attention to the economy, resulting in many economic measures that have merely maintained the status quo, leading to a decline in economic growth rates. However, this trend is not limited to China alone, as the world as a whole has struggled to stay on the right track. After a decade, there are still many pressing issues that require immediate attention, including the need to redo things that should have been done a decade ago.
Assessing the governance of the incoming Prime Minister Li Qiang from three different perspectives, I believe it is essential for any incoming leader to improve expectations and restore the economy to its normal trajectory. While China may not be a rule-of-law country, it is a market economy, albeit the boundaries between government, market, and enterprises are often blurred. The power wielded by many businessmen, especially the wealthy and influential ones, is used to capitalize on government officials' connections and exert their influence through business dealings.
Recently, China's government has taken action to crack down on companies that monopolize power by leveraging internet and mobile technology, as well as those that pose threats to financial stability through connections to obtain large loans. However, the reasons and future course of such crackdowns are not always clear to the outside world. Clear communication between the government, market, and enterprises is essential to resolving these short-term issues.
In my estimation, Prime Minister Li Qiang will prioritize foreign investment, as foreign investors are primarily concerned with the economy, with political considerations taking a back seat. This, in turn, could be used to reshape domestic expectations. Moreover, it is imperative for any leader to focus on reviving the economy and navigating a successful recovery from the pandemic.
(This is the first part of "Assessing Li Qiang's Governance," written by Ou Sanduo, a special analysis expert for "China Brief.")
WSJ: U.S. Believes Beijing Is Considering Artillery and Drone Deliveries to Moscow
The US has said that China is considering providing artillery and drones to Russia to help stave off an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive this year. No weapons deliveries have yet taken place, but if China delivers lethal aid to Russia, it could have profound consequences on the battlefield in Ukraine and shape Western relations with Beijing for years. China has criticised Western arms deliveries to Ukraine and denies it is considering sending weapons to Russia. Any Chinese decision to provide arms would prompt Western discussions about fresh sanctions on China, according to US officials familiar with intelligence reports.
Bloomberg: Biden Does Not Anticipate China Giving Russia Major Weapons Aid
President Biden said that he doesn't anticipate China providing major weaponry assistance to Russia in its war against Ukraine, but warned that any such action would result in the US imposing severe sanctions. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the Chinese government probably approved dual-use items to support Russia, but did not provide any evidence. China later proposed a cease-fire plan that would be significant concessions to Russia, which was dismissed by Ukraine, the US, and its allies. Biden and Blinken have issued public warnings to Beijing about fully supporting Russia’s invasion.
Nikkei: China pushes for resurrection of EU investment deal
China has been lobbying EU decision-makers to resurrect the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), a planned investment deal that stalled after Beijing sanctioned EU officials over alleged human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region. Fu Cong, China's ambassador to the EU, has proposed that both sides simultaneously lift sanctions to revive the deal. While European businesses and officials find the agreement attractive because it promises improved market access and conditions for EU companies, some experts are sceptical that the deal can be revived given the ongoing human rights concerns in Xinjiang and the EU's efforts to keep supply chains of essential goods in friendly countries.
SCMP: China to train 5,000 security personnel from developing countries over next 5 years
China plans to train 5,000 security personnel from developing countries in the next five years under its Global Security Initiative, which aims to improve governance capacity in non-traditional security areas such as counterterrorism, cybersecurity, biosecurity, and emerging technologies. Beijing plans to create more international platforms for exchange and cooperation to address security challenges and provide 5,000 training opportunities for professionals from other developing countries. The move is seen as an attempt to boost China's global security influence, and Western countries have been closely watching these moves, which have sparked concerns about Chinese police practices and Beijing's overreaching influence in these regions.
That’s it for today’s The China Brief. Please subscribe if you find our content valuable!