Exclusive Insight: Li Qiang's precarious stardom
China Sticks Close to Russia as It Makes Cautious Diplomatic Push; China’s former central bank chief sounds alarm over pension dangers; US, Asian Partners Discussed Supply Chains in ‘Chip 4’ Talks
Welcome to today's issue of "The China Brief." China is offering incentives to boost its declining birth rate. Still, young adults remain skeptical due to anxieties over supporting aging parents and the high cost of education, housing, and healthcare. China's diplomatic relationship with Russia is under scrutiny as China has called for peace talks in Ukraine but has not criticized Russia's actions. China's former central bank chief has warned that private pensions will need to play a larger role in the sector due to the country's aging population. The US and its Asian partners, known as the "Chip 4" grouping, held a meeting to discuss an early warning system to ensure a steady chip supply.
And here’s today’s exclusive insight:
Li Qiang’s precarious stardom
Today we continue our discussion of Li Qiang, this time from a political standpoint. Born in 1959, he will reach the retirement age of 68 by the time of the 21st Party Congress in 2027, at which point his reappointment would depend entirely on Xi Jinping. Li Qiang is currently in a precarious position, as the Chinese proverb goes, "one person is above him, and millions below him." He is constrained by Vice Premier He Lifeng from Fujian on one side and by Ding Xuexiang, a younger figure from Shanghai, on the other side. If Li Qiang fails to navigate these political tightropes effectively, he risks being sidelined or replaced at any time.
It's essential to note that the stakes are high and the potential pitfalls are numerous. However, if he successfully overcomes these obstacles, he could earn a significant increase in popularity and prestige, which could ultimately become a political taboo. China's Communist Party has a long history of such cases where highly regarded leaders have faced downfall. For example, Liu Shaoqi, who was second in command in the early 1960s, spearheaded the economic restructuring alongside Deng Xiaoping, pulling the country out of the Great Leap Forward and natural disasters. Despite these achievements, he was eventually purged during the Cultural Revolution. Similarly, Zhou Enlai led the restoration of Sino-US diplomatic relations in the early 1970s and won a diplomatic victory, but he was soon after purged.
Li Qiang's political limitations demand adept navigation of the challenges ahead for success. The path ahead will be arduous with multiple economic issues to tackle. Can Li Qiang receive the highest praise for his 5-year term as premier? As the Chinese proverb goes, let him toil with vigor and find tranquility in rest!
(This article is part of the series "Assessment of Li Qiang's Governance". The series is written by Ou Sanduo, a special analysis expert for The China Brief.)
NYT: Desperate for Babies, China Races to Undo an Era of Birth Limits. Is It Too Late?
China is racing to reverse its declining birth rate by offering incentives such as expanding national insurance coverage for fertility treatments, allowing single parents to register children, and encouraging college students to donate sperm. However, many young Chinese adults are skeptical of the measures, citing anxieties about supporting aging parents and the high cost of education, housing, and healthcare. Moreover, gender inequality looms over the demographic crisis, as women face discrimination in job listings and as mothers, and many choose not to have children. Demographers recommend shortening schooling by two years and eliminating the competitive exam for entrance to high school as policy solutions to incentivize childbearing.
WSJ: China Sticks Close to Russia as It Makes Cautious Diplomatic Push
China and Russia have grown closer over the course of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but China has shown little willingness to distance itself from Moscow's positions. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has called for peace talks and the avoidance of nuclear war, but China has not criticized Russia's actions. Although some Chinese policy advisers are becoming wary of the conflict's prolonged impact on Russia, Beijing has not yet distanced itself from Moscow. Chinese diplomats have been calling for talks to end the war in Europe, but China's biggest effort at multiparty talks, which aimed to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program, ultimately failed.
FT: China’s support for Russia taints Ukraine ‘peace’ plan, western officials say
China has called for a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine and a return to negotiations. However, western leaders immediately called into question China’s motives, accusing Beijing of having already taken Russia’s side in the war. The Chinese foreign ministry on Friday released a 12-point paper outlining its position on a “political settlement” to the war, though many of the measures reiterated Beijing’s previous talking points.
SCMP: China’s former central bank chief sounds alarm over pension dangers
Zhou Xiaochuan, a former head of China’s central bank, has warned that the country’s ageing population means that a crack could easily emerge in China’s limited pension pool, with private pensions needing to play a larger role in the sector. Zhou has suggested that state pensions should be viewed as a “guarantee for the basics” and argued that pension gaps will largely have to be filled by private schemes. In 2021, nearly 19% of China’s population was aged 60 or over, a demographic expected to rise to 28% by 2040.
Bloomberg: US, Asian Partners Discussed Supply Chains in ‘Chip 4’ Talks
Officials from the US, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, collectively known as the "Chip 4" grouping, held a video conference on Feb. 16 to discuss an early warning system to ensure a steady chip supply. Discussions on export controls were not discussed in the meeting and no companies were involved. Taiwan proposed exchanging information on different parts of the supply chain, with Taiwan and South Korea focusing on manufacturing, Japan on materials, and the US on its role as a major market. This meeting follows the Biden administration's attempt to impose curbs on the sale of advanced chip equipment to China with the help of its global partners.
That’s it for today’s The China Brief. Please subscribe if you find our content helpful: