Exclusive Insight: Personnel Arrangement and Internal Check and Balance of China's Political and Legal System
Putin Suspends New Start Nuclear-Arms Treaty With U.S.; China’s State-Owned Firms Are Sitting Out the Property Rescue; Qin Gang warns against 'fueling fire' in Ukraine war
In today's issue of "The China Brief," we look at a range of news stories. First, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow would suspend its participation in the New Start nuclear-arms-control treaty with the US while continuing Russia's military campaign in Ukraine. Meanwhile, China's state-owned property companies have largely ignored the government's encouragement to take over ailing private real-estate developers' projects and assets. China's Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, is set to visit Indonesia for a two-day trip to discuss trade, investments, and development projects, and will address other issues such as the South China Sea and the Ukraine war. Additionally, Kyocera, one of the world's largest makers of chip components, is investing heavily in facilities at home and shifting its production elsewhere, as it calls China no longer viable as the world's factory. Finally, China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, is set to meet with senior Russian officials to discuss the war in Ukraine, which underscores the deepening ties between China and Russia that are causing alarm in the West.
And here’s today’s exclusive insight:
Exclusive Insight: Personnel Arrangement and Internal Check and Balance of China's Political and Legal System
To better understand the political and legal system personnel arrangements, it's useful to examine the broader personnel arrangements made by Xi Jinping for several departments related to politics and law.
Li Xi, from Shaanxi, leads the disciplinary inspection department and is responsible for supervising key officials from Fujian, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, as well as their staff.
The military department is led by Zhong Shaojun from Zhejiang, and Wang Xiaohong from Fujian is responsible for the internal security and public security department.
Given that the leaders of these three departments come from different regions, it would be challenging for them to collude. For the same reason, the minister of public security and the leader of the internal security department cannot be from Shaanxi or Zhejiang, making Wang Xiaohong the only viable candidate.
Many of the current leaders of the public security department have connections to Wang Xiaohong, either through Fujian, Henan, or Beijing. The head of the disciplinary inspection department comes from Shandong and is responsible for oversight.
Although the other departments related to the political and legal system are less important, Chen Yixin, the current Minister of State Security and a Zhejiang native, is also the Secretary-General of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, and he has been working on issues related to reforming the work of the political and legal system.
Given the current layout, Chen Yixin can oversee both the public security and disciplinary inspection departments. With his qualifications, he can easily replace the Minister of Public Security, Wang Xiaohong, and the relatively weak Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, Chen Wenqing, and serve as a restraint on both of them.
In fact, the reason why the relatively weak figure, Chen Wenqing, was chosen as Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, rather than Chen Yixin or Wang Xiaohong, was to prevent Fujian or Zhejiang from dominating the political and legal system.
It appears that He Rong, who is currently in charge of daily operations and hails from Shandong, is the likely candidate for President of the Supreme People's Court. Meanwhile, Ying Yong, who is from Zhejiang and currently serving as the Deputy Procurator-General, is expected to be the next Procurator-General of the Supreme People's Procuratorate.
Ying Yong has followed Xi Jinping from Zhejiang to Shanghai, where he held leadership positions in both the public security department and the court. During the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, he was appointed as the Secretary of the Hubei Provincial Party Committee and made significant contributions.
Due to his high level of trust, qualifications, and achievements, Ying Yong was expected to be promoted to the Politburo, but he retired from the frontlines ahead of the 20th Party Congress. However, he later made a comeback and eventually rose to the level of Vice-Minister. There may be several things that Ying Yong needs to reflect on, such as whether he is too arrogant, unable to position himself correctly, or unable to control his words, or whether he failed to properly manage Hubei.
Regardless, with Ying Yong's new position and qualifications, he can also serve as a restraint on both Wang Xiaohong and He Rong, and he can easily replace either of them if necessary.
(Authored by Lao Zong, special analytical expert for "The China Brief")
WSJ: Putin Suspends New Start Nuclear-Arms Treaty With U.S.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow would suspend its participation in the New Start nuclear-arms-control treaty with the U.S. and said he would continue Russia's military campaign in Ukraine. The U.S. State Department said last month that Russia had violated the New Start treaty by refusing to allow on-site inspections and rebuffing Washington's requests to discuss its compliance concerns.
WSJ: China’s State-Owned Firms Are Sitting Out the Property Rescue
The government encouraged state-owned property companies to step in and take over ailing private real-estate developers' projects and assets, but the companies have largely ignored the call and have instead used a "merger and acquisition" bond program to pay off their own debt.
State-owned developers are reluctant to buy projects because of the property-market slowdown and strict zero-Covid measures. They have also been too careful with the wording of their calls for property companies to buy assets, said Bruce Pang, chief China economist at Jones Lang LaSalle. Private developers are trying to keep their best assets in the hope of a recovery, but may be left with only poor-quality assets.
China's main debt-market regulator suggested last December that stronger developers issue bonds with a "merger and acquisition" label and use the money to acquire struggling private developers' projects. However, only five state-owned or state-backed developers have issued these bonds so far, raising a total of $1 billion between them.
Nikkei: China warns against 'fueling fire' in Ukraine war
China's Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, called for an end to actions "fueling the fire" in the Ukraine conflict as he unveiled China's global security plan that extends to cooperation in artificial intelligence and outer space. Despite a "no-limits" partnership with Moscow, Gang warned against escalating the conflict sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The comments came after US President Joe Biden's surprise visit to Ukraine and amid US warnings that China plans to supply military support to Russia, a claim that China denies. Gang urged certain countries to immediately stop fueling the fire and stop shifting blame to China, which some have suggested could aid China's future incursion into self-ruled Taiwan. The release of the concept paper on China's Global Security Initiative coincided with Gang's speech, outlining President Xi Jinping's "major country diplomacy" goals with a wide-ranging plan aimed at eliminating the root causes of international conflicts, including a call for global rules on data security, artificial intelligence, and cooperation in space.
FT: China’s top diplomat to discuss Ukraine war during Moscow visit
China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, is set to meet with senior Russian officials to discuss the war in Ukraine, which underscores the deepening ties between China and Russia that are causing alarm in the West. The visit will be Wang's last stop on his European tour, and he has used the tour to pitch China as a potential peacemaker in Ukraine and rebuild Beijing's ties with the West. Wang has cultivated Russia as a useful bulwark in China's growing competition with the US, and China has not condemned the invasion but has instead helped Russia offset the damage from the sanctions. Despite Wang's conciliatory remarks, China's moves to deepen ties with Russia have caused concern in Western capitals.
FT: China no longer viable as world’s factory, says Kyocera
Kyocera, one of the world's largest makers of chip components, is investing heavily in facilities at home and shifting its production elsewhere as it calls China no longer viable as the world's factory. Kyocera has relocated the manufacturing of its copiers and the production of in-vehicle cameras for the US market from China to Vietnam and Thailand, respectively. Hideo Tanimoto, president of Kyocera, believes US export controls are partly responsible for cutting the full-year operating profit forecast of the company.
SCMP: China’s Qin Gang to discuss trade, South China Sea, Ukraine during first Indonesia visit
China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang is set to visit Indonesia for a two-day trip to discuss trade, investments, and development projects. The agenda for Qin's meeting with President Joko Widodo will include bilateral cooperation programs such as the Bandung-West Java railway, development, and economy. They will also address other issues such as the South China Sea and the Ukraine war. Shafiah Muhibat, deputy executive director for research at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, expects similar issues to be discussed in the JCBC forum, with a focus on development projects. Indonesia's Jokowi and President Xi Jinping agreed to see through cooperation programs over the next five years during their meeting at the G20 summit in Bali.