How China Will Squeeze, Not Seize, Taiwan; Tang Renjian Investigated: Implications for Xi Jinping’s Focus on Food Security and Connections to Wang Qishan, Hui Liangyu, and Wang Yang
Top China chipmakers SMIC and CXMT push to scrap foreign inputs；China’s returning overseas graduates hit in the pocket, face harsh reality of job market
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Tang Renjian Investigated: Implications for Xi Jinping’s Focus on Food Security and Connections to Wang Qishan, Hui Liangyu, and Wang Yang
Luo Jianhao
2024-05-21
China's reform and opening-up began in rural areas before expanding to cities and various economic sectors. This progression led early agricultural officials to spread into several critical, interconnected fields. Understanding this background provides insight into the recent investigation of Tang Renjian.
Economic Policy Research System
The Rural Policy Research Office of the Central Committee Secretariat, established in 1982, spearheaded rural reform policy research. For many years, the annual No. 1 Central Document, focusing on agriculture, has been drafted by agricultural policy researchers like Tang Renjian. In the late 1980s, this office was dissolved during institutional reforms, and its personnel were integrated into the newly established Development Research Center of the State Council, responsible for economic policy research.
This new center had extensive interactions and personnel exchanges with the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission (CFEAC), which coordinates economic work and drafts key documents. Similarly, the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office (CRWLG), responsible for agricultural work coordination and document drafting, shared offices with the CFEAC. The head of the CRWLG also served as a deputy director of the CFEAC. This organizational structure naturally led agricultural policy researchers to gravitate towards core economic policy departments.
Chen Xiwen, who retired in 2016, exemplifies this trend. He began in the Rural Policy Research Office, moved to the Development Research Center, and later became the head of the CRWLG and deputy director of the CFEAC. Another example is Han Jun, the current Secretary of the Anhui Provincial Committee, who also transitioned from agricultural research to the CRWLG and CFEAC.
Notably, Xi Jinping, while working locally in the mid-1980s, was a special researcher at the Rural Policy Research Office. This connection likely influenced the rapid promotion of individuals with agricultural research backgrounds like Tang Renjian and Han Jun after 2012.
Financial Sector
Retired CCDI Secretary Wang Qishan’s first role in the system was in the Rural Policy Research Office, where he was responsible for liaison work rather than research. In 1988, he left the office to become General Manager of the China Agricultural Trust Investment Company, marking the beginning of his financial career, eventually becoming Vice Premier overseeing finance. This intersection led many agricultural personnel to engage extensively with financial sector professionals.
Major Agricultural Provinces: Jilin and Anhui
China’s rural reform began in Anhui, a major agricultural province. Vice Premiers overseeing agriculture often have experience in Jilin and Anhui.
Hui Liangyu, Vice Premier from 2003 to 2013, worked in both Jilin and Anhui. During this period, Tang Renjian received continuous promotions. From 2013 to 2018, Wang Yang, also from Anhui, served as Vice Premier and rose to the Politburo Standing Committee from 2017 to 2022. During this time, Tang transitioned from an aide to a senior local official, receiving rapid promotions. The current Vice Premier, Liu Guozhong, also has experience in Jilin.
Many past Agriculture Ministers also hailed from Jilin. Du Qinglin (2001-2006) and Sun Zhengcai (2006-2009) both worked extensively in Jilin before moving to higher positions, including the Politburo. Han Changfu (2009-2018) also worked in both the CRWLG and Jilin.
Jilin Province and Financial Sector Interconnection
Liu Hongru, the first Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, is from Jilin and mentored many Jilin natives (e.g., Liu Liange, the former Chairman of the Bank of China who was investigated last year). Liu’s influence remains significant in the securities sector.
Combining the above information indicates that agricultural leaders influence not only agriculture but also policy decisions and financial sectors, creating a complex network.
The investigation into Tang Renjian, based on available public information, can be inferred as follows:
Firstly, the sudden and unanticipated nature of the incident suggests it is not related to money or women. It likely involves issues that Xi Jinping is particularly concerned about, such as food and seed security.
Secondly, considering recent public news of agricultural leaders being investigated, Tang’s case may be linked to the Syngenta Group acquisition. This group, producing herbicides, insecticides, and GM seeds, is involved in several safety controversies.
In 2016, a Chinese state-owned enterprise acquired Syngenta at a high price. In 2023, Syngenta applied for an A-share listing with a massive fundraising goal, approved within a month, indicating significant connections in the securities sector.
At the end of March this year, Syngenta abruptly withdrew its IPO application. On May 12, Ren Jianxin, the retired chairman of ChemChina who led the Syngenta acquisition, was suddenly arrested. Shortly after, Agriculture Minister Tang Renjian was investigated.
Uncovering long-standing issues in the agricultural sector is beneficial. Since China’s reform and opening-up began with agriculture, the forthcoming comprehensive reforms might also involve agricultural reforms, particularly rural land. Eliminating these deep-rooted problems will help ensure the success of the next round of reforms.
How China Will Squeeze, Not Seize, Taiwan
Foreign Affairs
The United States' focus on the threat of a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan is misplaced, according to an article in Foreign Affairs. The author argues that China is more likely to employ a "creeping encroachment" strategy, gradually intensifying its control over Taiwan's airspace, maritime space, and information space through gray-zone operations. These coercive activities fall short of war but aim to prevent Taiwan from achieving formal independence and demonstrate the limits of US power in Asia. The US and Taiwan should therefore shift their strategies to counter this encroachment, building buffer zones, hardening communication infrastructure, and accelerating economic links that are resilient against Chinese disruption.
The article argues that China's gray-zone activities in the Taiwan Strait are part of a long-term strategy aimed at subjugating Taiwan without resorting to an invasion. China's actions, such as increasing incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone and conducting live-fire drills in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan, are designed to expand its control and limit Taiwan's autonomy. The author suggests that China's lack of recent combat experience and low confidence in its joint operations capability make an outright invasion less likely, while a creeping encroachment approach offers distinct advantages in terms of cost and risk.
To counter this strategy, Taiwan should focus on building buffer zones, expanding its coast guard, and investing in domain-awareness capabilities. The United States should support Taiwan by bolstering its surveillance capabilities, expanding the role of the US Coast Guard, and coordinating with corporations to ensure Taiwan's economic access. The article warns that if the US and Taiwan remain fixated on the prospect of an invasion, they may miss the more subtle encroachment strategy and find themselves unable to prevent Taiwan's subjugation.
Top China chipmakers SMIC and CXMT push to scrap foreign inputs
Nikkei Asia
China's top chipmakers are attempting to counter US export controls by localizing the supply of key chip materials and chemicals, with the aim of pushing foreign suppliers out of the market, sources have said. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp is asking customers to help it screen, verify and adopt local suppliers, while ChangXin Memory Technologies has launched a campaign to vet local suppliers.
China’s returning overseas graduates hit in the pocket, face harsh reality of job market
South China Morning Post
Returning overseas graduates in China are finding that the value of their degrees has fallen in the country's increasingly competitive job market. A survey of over 9,000 students and parents showed that some students received salaries over a third lower than expected, with first monthly salaries between 23-34% lower than expectations last year. The report also highlighted that a record high 11.79 million university students are expected to enter China's job market this year, making it even more competitive.
Furious mainland China slams Taiwanese leader’s ‘blatant’ call for independence
South China Morning Post
Taiwan's new leader, William Lai Ching-te, was accused by mainland China's People's Daily and PLA Daily newspapers of provoking confrontation and promoting Taiwan independence in his inauguration speech. Lai's predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, acknowledged the 1992 consensus, but Lai referred to Beijing needing to "face the reality of the Republic of China's existence", without mentioning the consensus. Lai has previously described himself as a worker for Taiwan independence, resulting in concerns that tensions between China and Taiwan may escalate.
South China Morning Post
China is planning to establish independent AI academies in Shanghai and Beijing to support the growth of the country's artificial intelligence industry. The Ministry of Education, responsible for the academies, will seek to establish more institutes in other provinces. Zhu Songchun, dean of the School of Intelligence Science and Technology at Peking University, called for China's academic institutions to open up to the global community to lead the country's technological innovation. The move comes as Beijing doubles down on AI to build a high-quality tech workforce and boost its sluggish economy.
China National Nuclear Power starts work on nation’s largest offshore solar farm
South China Morning Post
China National Nuclear Power (CNNP) has started construction of the country's largest offshore solar farm. The 2 GW pilot project is being built next to the Tianwan nuclear power station in Jiangsu province. The solar farm will include a 0.4 GW energy-storage facility and is expected to generate 2.23 billion kWh of power over its 25-year lifespan. The project will cost CNY9.88bn ($1.4bn) and its solar panels will cover 18.8 sq km. CNNP has a 90% stake in the project, which is expected to form part of a 10 GW clean-energy production base.
South China Morning Post
BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volkswagen have been found to have used components from a Chinese supplier that is banned in the US over forced labor ties, according to a US congressional investigation. The report by the Senate Finance Committee stated that BMW had produced and imported vehicles with parts "presumptively made with forced labor," while Jaguar Land Rover imported parts with the same issues. Volkswagen also made vehicles for the US market with such components and has "ongoing business ties" to manufacturing in China's Xinjiang region. Beijing has been accused of incarcerating over one million Uygurs and other Muslim minorities in detention facilities in Xinjiang. The Uygur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) bans the import of all goods from Xinjiang unless companies offer verifiable proof that production did not involve forced labor.
South China Morning Post
China's satellite navigation market is set to experience significant growth in the coming years as the country strengthens its home-grown BeiDou system and expands its overseas market. The value of China's satellite navigation and location-based services reached CNY 536.2 billion ($74.2 billion) in 2021, up 7.09% from the previous year. The industry, centred around the BeiDou navigation system, has grown steadily in recent years and now covers a wide range of sectors. The first BeiDou satellites were launched in 2000, and China officially unveiled its third-generation system in 2020. BeiDou is widely used in smartphones and wearable devices.
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