Ukraine war casts long shadow over India's hopes for G20 summit in New Delhi; China’s ambitious self-driving vehicle goals face roadblocks
‘A ghost town’: Malaysia’s Country Garden Forest City struggles to sell units
Welcome to this issue of The China Brief. Today is September 3, 2023. Here at The China Brief, we bring you the latest news on China's politics, economy, and society from global media sources, along with exclusive expert analysis. If you find our content helpful, please subscribe to our newsletter.
Ukraine war casts long shadow over India's hopes for G20 summit in New Delhi
RFI
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the G20 summit in New Delhi, opting instead to send Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Germany and Canada have called for solidarity with Ukraine and highlighted the impact of the war. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has apologised for the disruption caused by the summit, which is being touted as the grandest diplomatic event in India since 1984.
China’s ambitious self-driving vehicle goals face roadblocks, experts say
South China Morning Post
China's goal of having 20% of all new vehicles sold with Level 4 autonomous capabilities by 2030 seems "quite ambitious and unlikely" to be achieved, according to technology analyst Brady Wang. He said the current rate of progress suggests a more realistic estimate is 5% to 10%. Wang added that although partially autonomous Level 2 vehicles could account for more than 50% of the market by 2025, a lack of profitability and regulatory uncertainty have slowed investment in autonomous vehicles in China.
‘A ghost town’: Malaysia’s Country Garden Forest City struggles to sell units
South China Morning Post
China's Country Garden is struggling to complete its Forest City project in Malaysia, which aimed to attract middle-class Chinese buyers. The project has faced numerous challenges, including low sales, Chinese currency controls, and public anger at China's influence in Malaysia. Country Garden is currently burdened with $196bn of debt and posted a record loss for H1 2023. The company narrowly avoided defaulting on a key bond repayment deadline, but another deadline looms next week. Forest City, which was a key project under China's Belt and Road Initiative, houses around 9,000 people, well below its 700,000 target.
Is US replicating what China’s been doing for a decade with drone plan?
South China Morning Post
The US has revealed plans to build thousands of unmanned systems over the next two years, aimed at countering China's military advances. The "Replicator" initiative is designed to wear down the Chinese military through attrition warfare, with the aim of persuading China that the cost of attacking would be too great to overcome. Some analysts have said that the US is attempting to replicate China's strategy of building large numbers of unmanned systems quickly, easily and cheaply.
Why it's so much cheaper to ship stuff from China than within Canada
CBC
The cost of shipping packages from China to Canada is significantly cheaper than shipping them between Canadian provinces, due to an agreement made by the Universal Postal Union in 1874. The agreement meant countries would carry other countries' letters and parcels for free, with the understanding it would balance out. However, as e-commerce has grown, China has been able to take advantage of the cheap shipping rates, leading to calls for reform from countries such as the US and Canada. Canada increased its rates over time but still has a substantial gap to close, according to economist Mindaugus Cerpikin.
Taiwan ramps up anti-drone systems development amid PLA threat
South China Morning Post
Taiwan is stepping up its efforts to develop anti-drone systems in response to increased threats from the Chinese military. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has intensified its surveillance operations and attack drones around Taiwan, including encircling the island. In August, at least eight PLA long-range drones entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone. The low cost and high effectiveness of the drones in surveillance and combat were cited as reasons for the PLA's increase in such missions. In addition to gathering intelligence, the frequent UAV fly-bys would also exhaust Taiwan's military, which needs time and money to keep track of the drones, said Chang Yen-ting, a retired air force lieutenant general. Experts warned that Taiwan needs to accelerate its development of counter-drone measures. The island has ordered MQ-9 Reaper drones from the US, which are expected to enhance its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, but they will not arrive until 2025.
BMW expects higher China car sales in 2023 despite price war, CFO Mertl says
South China Morning Post
BMW is expecting to sell more cars in China this year, despite a price war in the electric vehicle (EV) segment and muted demand overall. The company grew 3.7% in China in the first half of the year, faster than the overall market, and expects this trend to continue. The price war has primarily affected the cheaper segments of the Chinese auto market, where BMW is not active. BMW recently raised its 2023 outlook for group vehicle sales and said it expects solid growth. The company plans to raise the share of EVs in total vehicles sold to 15% in 2023 and 20% in 2024.
In China’s shadow, U.S. rushes back to neglected Indian Ocean island
Washington Post
The United States is making a diplomatic push in small island nations in an effort to counter China's influence. Seychelles, Tonga, and the Solomon Islands have all recently received new US embassies, while the US also plans to open embassies in Maldives, Vanuatu, and Kiribati. These countries were previously considered strategically unimportant by the US, allowing China to step in and build schools, hospitals, and public amenities, which created goodwill among the local populations. However, the US is now attempting to regain lost ground by re-establishing diplomatic relations and offering support to these nations. Seychelles, in particular, has become an arena of competition between the US and China in the Indian Ocean, with both countries vying for influence. While Seychellois officials are glad to have the US back, they also recognize that China is likely the main reason for the US return. China has been investing in Seychelles for the past two decades, focusing on low-cost but impactful projects such as building government buildings, housing, and educational facilities. However, it remains to be seen whether China's efforts will translate into real influence, as Seychelles has voted against China on certain issues and has not shown an inclination to adopt its form of governance. The US is also keen to support Seychelles during its democratic transition, as an opposition party came to power for the first time in 2020.
Cutting-edge tech key to deter Taiwan conflict: U.K. military officer
Nikkei Asia
Artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity will be crucial in preventing future conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, according to General Jim Hockenhull, commander of the British armed forces' Strategic Command. Speaking in Tokyo, Hockenhull said that advanced military capabilities are needed to deter any potential invasion of Taiwan by China. He also stressed the importance of collaboration between the UK and Japan on advanced technologies and cybersecurity, particularly in the area of the Global Combat Air Programme, which is developing next-generation fighter aircraft. Hockenhull's comments came amid growing concerns over China launching cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns in Taiwan.
Chinese LGBTQ organisations look for ways to survive crackdown
South China Morning Post
Chinese LGBTQ organizations are facing increased pressure and censorship from the government. Police have been checking on the whereabouts of LGBTQ activists and censoring their social media posts. Last month, several LGBTQ organizations had their WeChat accounts permanently banned. China has no laws protecting LGBTQ rights or recognizing this population, and conservative voices argue that LGBTQ people could create social conflict and contribute to a declining population. The pressure on LGBTQ organizations has been building for years, with social media accounts being banned and organizations shutting down. The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified censorship and surveillance, making it difficult for activists to hold events or communicate with volunteers. Many activists have chosen to go low-key or move abroad to Chinese-speaking communities. LGBTQ organizations in China face constant scrutiny and struggle to register as charities. Despite the challenges, activists continue to work on issues such as domestic violence, employment discrimination, and sexual and psychological health. While some organizations have closed, individuals remain committed to supporting each other and witnessing important events.
Taiwan braces for Typhoon Haikui, thousands evacuated
Deutsche Welle
Taiwan has evacuated thousands of people from their homes as it prepares for the arrival of Typhoon Haikui. The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the south and eastern parts of the island. President Tsai Ing-wen has urged caution and advised people to stay indoors and avoid going to the mountains or coast. Taiwan has mobilized soldiers and equipment in preparation for the typhoon. Typhoon Haikui is expected to be a category 1 or 2 typhoon when it hits Taiwan. It is considered to be a weaker storm compared to Typhoon Saola, which hit Hong Kong and southern China on Saturday. The storm is expected to cross the Taiwan Strait into China.
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