Xi Jinping rallies Guangdong to Greater Bay Area cause; Exclusive Insight: Macron's Odyssey: Navigating the Tides of Continental Ambition and Historical Legacy
French firms set to expand in Hong Kong, Greater Bay Area after Macron trip; Risk of Chinese Economic Blockade Has Taiwan Preparing Response
Welcome to this issue of The China Brief. Today is April 14, 2023. Here at The China Brief, we bring you the latest news on China's politics, economy, and society from global media sources, along with exclusive expert analysis. If you find our content helpful, please subscribe to our newsletter.
And here’s today’s exclusive insight:
Exclusive Insight: Macron's Odyssey: Navigating the Tides of Continental Ambition and Historical Legacy
The European continent strives to forge its unique path, separate from the US and UK, as the European Union's economic prowess now exceeds that of the US.
French President Emmanuel Macron hails from a middle-class background. A center-right politician, he aims for France to regain its former glory through reforms and strong EU support. He became the youngest French president in 2017 and was re-elected for a second term.
Born in 1977 in Amiens, France, Macron graduated from France's top institutions and began his career in banking before transitioning to politics. At the age of 39, he became the youngest French president in 2017 and was re-elected for a second term last year.
A comprehensive understanding of President Macron necessitates an exploration of historical context. From the 16th to the 18th century, England and France engaged in a persistent struggle for supremacy in Europe and beyond. The French Revolution, however, diminished France's influence on the continent, facilitating England's ascendancy. Notwithstanding the geopolitical tumult incited by the likes of Napoleon, Bismarck, Hitler, and Stalin, Anglo-Saxon powers, namely the United States and the United Kingdom, sustained their dominance.
In the aftermath of World War II, the United States emerged as the paramount force within the Western world, instituting NATO. French President Charles de Gaulle, in an assertion of national autonomy, initially prohibited the stationing of American troops on French soil. Subsequently, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Germany's reunification ignited the European continent's aspiration to liberate itself from Anglo-Saxon hegemony, thereby actualizing the longstanding vision of continental cohesion. This culminated in the establishment of the European Union, with Germany and France as its nucleus, incrementally evolving under the stewardship of successive generations of political leaders.
Following the Soviet Union's collapse, Russia endeavored to forge cordial relations with the United States, albeit to no avail. Redirecting its focus towards Europe, Russia found a receptive partner in the European Union under German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Consequently, Germany and the European Union furnished financial and technological resources, reciprocated by Russia's provision of energy and minerals. This collaboration facilitated the continent's prosperity and elevated the European Union's economic might above that of the United States.
(This article is part of a series titled "Why is Emmanuel Macron showing goodwill towards Xi Jinping now?". The author, Ma Ya, is also the author of "The Biography of Ma Hong.")
What Students Are Saying About Banning TikTok
NY Times
A survey of US teenagers found that most are opposed to a ban on Chinese social media app TikTok. The app, owned by ByteDance, has attracted controversy from lawmakers due to concerns about the data it extracts and its effects on young people. However, many respondents felt that data breaches were common to many apps, while a ban would breach the first amendment. The app was also regarded by teenagers as enjoyable, and useful for its lucrative creator community. The results were drawn from a range of schools, including those in South Korea and Colombia.
However, a significant minority of respondents were in favor of a ban, citing national security concerns and the app’s negative effects on mental health. The ease with which the app’s controls could be bypassed was also a concern for some. Critics of TikTok claim it is a source of Chinese propaganda in the US. While supporters of the app believe that creators can use it to spread informative and educational content.
Chinese President Xi Jinping rallies Guangdong to Greater Bay Area cause
South China Morning Post
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on Guangdong province to help make the Greater Bay Area plan a success, urging the province to exploit its tech and manufacturing industries to improve growth in the region. The Greater Bay Area scheme provides a platform for linking nine cities across Hong Kong, Macau and Guangdong to create a zone with unique advantages including economic, geographical and environmental locations, and promote economic integration under the "One Country, Two Systems" policy. Xi urged Guangdong to focus on developing the real economy and to foster sustainable industrial development, encouraging reforms under the policy to help China develop its own path to modernisation that would be different from the West. In addition, he called for education and training to develop science and technology locally, laying the foundation for economic independence.
French firms set to expand in Hong Kong, Greater Bay Area after Macron trip
South China Morning Post
French companies are preparing to expand their business presence in Hong Kong, in order to capitalise on the opportunities surrounding the Greater Bay Area. Gerald Wolf, an advisor to the French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, said that there is considerable interest amongst French companies to grow into this area. “The city can be a good springboard for French companies to establish a beachhead in the Greater Bay Area, an economic zone created in February 2019 encompassing nine cities in the southern Guangdong province in mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong.” The Greater Bay Area includes a population of 87 million, contributing around 35% towards China’s annual exports and 11% to its GDP. From recycling firms to infrastructure providers, food producers to financial service providers, Wolf believes that French companies see opportunity in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong needs incentives to compete with Singapore, Bermuda as insurance hub
South China Morning Post
Hong Kong’s insurance industry should follow Singapore’s lead and offer more incentives to international firms to set up regional headquarters in the city, according to proposals from the Hong Kong Federation of Insurers. Hong Kong attracted only 1.2% of global insurance premiums last year, a ranking of 16th. Singapore did not appear in the report cited by the HKFI.
The city is the world’s second-largest domestic insurance market, with many locals buying insurance products. But it struggles to attract overseas firms for marine, typhoon and other special insurance needs. Hong Kong’s 12 largest insurers - including AIA, AXA and FWD – are all incorporated in Bermuda for tax reasons. The HKFI has suggested insurers might consider redomiciling in Hong Kong if there were a fast-track mechanism in place.
U.S., UK, EU officials met with financial firms on Russian sanctions evasion
Reuters
Senior officials from the US, Europe, and Britain met last week with financial institutions to discuss Russia's efforts to evade Western sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. The meeting was held on the sidelines of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund spring meetings where top US intelligence officials shared information on how Russia is using its GRU military intelligence agency and Federal Security Service to try to evade sanctions and export controls. The Treasury’s top sanctions official, Undersecretary Brian Nelson, is travelling to Switzerland next week to discuss further moves to crackdown on sanctions evasion with additional stops in Italy, Austria, and Germany. The US, its allies, and Switzerland are increasing their enforcement of sanctions and cracking down hard on any evasion efforts.
IMF working closely with Suriname authorities, looks for progress in China talks
Reuters
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is working to revive Suriname's $700m financing programme, which stalled after the first review was approved over a year ago. Nigel Chalk, acting director of the Western Hemisphere at the IMF, said it had been hard to deal with Suriname's bilateral creditors, highlighting the need for progress on debt restructuring talks with China. "We had basically moved forward on the programme on the basis that they were essentially not paying the debt to China and would be eventually restructured," said Chalk at a press conference. He said the authorities were in discussions with the IMF to get the programme back on track.
Risk of Chinese Economic Blockade Has Taiwan Preparing Response
Bloomberg
Taiwan is discussing strategies to respond to a possible economic blockade by China, signalling a move towards economic warfare as opposed to direct military attack, according to the country’s deputy foreign minister, Roy Chun Lee. China views Taiwan as its territory, a top priority, and tension has risen over the past couple of years with Beijing and Washington disagreeing on everything from human rights to technology. President Joe Biden has made repeated promises to defend Taiwan in case of attack. Currently, planning is at an “inception” stage.
Taiwan’s recent efforts to stockpile critical goods and minerals, as well as new legislation, have shown a priority to be able to respond to a blockade, although Lee acknowledges this could have an economic cost as international companies reassess investments in the country. Furthermore, Lee said he expects the US-Taiwan relationship to remain unchanged, regardless of the outcome of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election or the American election ten months later, as maintaining a long-term, solid and united partnership with the US is still critical for Taiwan.
Twitter staff cuts leave Russian trolls unchecked
BBC
Twitter is being overwhelmed by both Russian and Chinese propaganda output following the abolition of the social media giant's 'information operations' team, according to an investigation by the BBC. The team had aimed to counter centrally co-ordinated campaigns by nations including China, Iran and Russia designed to influence democratic institutions and public opinion. The team was downsized after company founder Elon Musk bought a 10% stake in the successful wire service Compound in 2021, and refocused Twitter on engineering growth instead of preventing foreign manipulation. Experts warn the platform's naked-eye systems can barely keep up with the volume of troll traffic, while experienced commentators have warned of increased undermining of democracies and the difficulties of recognising genuine domestic voices in the face of an influx of fake content.
Polish PM blasts ‘short-sighted’ European opening to China after Macron visit
South China Morning Post
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has accused European countries, including French President Emmanuel Macron, of making a mistake by seeking closer ties with China. Morawiecki said that these countries looked to China “to sell more EU products there at huge geopolitical costs, making us more dependent on China and not less.” Ukraine could suffer the consequences of such dependence, he added, warning “some European countries are trying to make with China the same mistake which was made with Russia – this dramatic mistake." Morawiecki accused western European powers of providing weaker support for Ukraine than the US, the UK and Eastern European countries, with the exception of Hungary. He was critical of the Western European modus vivendi of relying on cheap energy from Russia, high-margin trade with China and low-cost labour from Eastern Europe.
North Korea says it tested new solid-fuel ICBM on Thursday -KCNA
Reuters
North Korea has claimed that it has tested a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) aimed at boosting the country's nuclear counterattack capability. Despite causing Japan to give a false alarm yesterday, the missile appears to be part of a pattern of less volatile testing as North Korea continues to push towards developing a missile with the capability to penetrate a missile defence shield. It is said that a solid-fuel ICBM would make it harder for countries to detect and respond to a North Korean missile launch.
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